The Holiday Freeze Is Here: Inventory Plummets as 2025 Wraps Up

Market Update for the Week Ending December 21, 2025

If you were waiting for a quiet week in San Diego real estate, you just got it. ❄️

As we head into the final stretch of 2025, the market has officially hit the "Holiday Freeze." We are seeing massive drops in new listings and active inventory across the board. This is the classic seasonal pattern where sellers pull back to enjoy the holidays, leaving only the most serious buyers and sellers in the game.

But here is the twist. Despite the drop in activity, prices aren't crashing. In fact, the 4-week rolling average for sold prices is ticking up in both sectors. Scarcity is keeping values firm.

Here is the full breakdown of what happened this week.

🏠 DETACHED HOMES: Inventory Falls Off a Cliff

The detached market is tightening rapidly as we close out the year. The supply spigot has effectively been turned off, with new listings dropping 29% week-over-week. We went from 210 listings last week to just 150 this week. While typical for Christmas week, this creates a very limited menu for buyers. Consequently, active inventory plummeted 14%, dropping by nearly 350 homes to land at 2,097.

Demand is cooling but certainly not disappearing. Pending sales dipped slightly by 3.7% to 207. Interestingly, home values are holding their ground despite the lull. The 4-week rolling average for median sold price is $1,083,125, which is actually up slightly from last week’s average of $1,074,375.

The Takeaway: Sellers have largely packed it in for the year. If you are buying right now, you have fewer choices, but you are also competing with fewer people.

🏢 ATTACHED HOMES: Prices Pop Despite Slowdown

Condos and townhomes are following a similar trend, though the price jump is more notable this week. New listings fell 12% to 107, and active inventory dropped 5.1% to sit at 1,960 units.

Pending sales saw a noticeable dip, falling 13% to 98. However, just like the detached market, prices are resilient. The 4-week rolling average for median sold price jumped to $667,175, a solid increase from the previous average of $654,175.

The Takeaway: The attached market is seeing a sharper drop in demand than the detached market, but the scarcity of listings is keeping a floor under prices.

💡 What This Means For You

🛒 For Buyers

The "Holiday Freeze" can be an opportunity. While inventory is down 14% for homes, the competition is usually nonexistent this week. Sellers who are still active during Christmas often have a strong motivation to sell. If you see a home you like, you might have more negotiating power than you think simply because no one else is making offers right now.

💰 For Sellers

If your home is on the market, you are one of the few options in town. With new listings down nearly 30%, you have very little fresh competition. However, be realistic because buyer traffic naturally slows this week. If you haven't sold yet, you might be looking at a January closing, but the lack of supply is working in your favor to keep your price firm.

🪺 For Homeowners

Enjoy the holidays! 🎄 Your equity is safe. We are seeing prices hold steady or even rise slightly on a 4-week average basis. The market is taking a nap, not a dive. We expect activity to ramp back up significantly by mid-January.

📞 Ready to Make Your Move?

Whether you are looking to snag a deal before the New Year or preparing to list in the spring 2026 rush, you need a strategy that fits this specific market.

I help my clients navigate these seasonal shifts to get the best possible results. Let’s chat about your goals for 2026.

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